Derby County vs Fleetwood Town analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.6%
Win probability
2.09
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.3%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.9%
3-0
7.9%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.2%
2-0
11.3%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.9%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
19.8%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.8%
14.6%
Win probability
0.87
Expected goals
0-1
4.5%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.1%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.5%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov. 2023 |
POR
0 - 1
DER
22%
27%
50%
|
74 | 64 | 10 | 0 |
| 25 Nov. 2023 |
DER
2 - 1
BRO
55%
24%
20%
|
74 | 67 | 7 | 0 |
| 14 Nov. 2023 |
DER
1 - 3
CRE
61%
21%
18%
|
75 | 64 | 11 | -1 |
| 11 Nov. 2023 |
DER
3 - 0
BAR
37%
27%
37%
|
74 | 76 | 2 | +1 |
| 08 Nov. 2023 |
DER
4 - 1
WOL
72%
17%
11%
|
74 | 49 | 25 | 0 |
Matches
Fleetwood Town
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Dec. 2023 |
CAM
4 - 0
FLE
31%
25%
44%
|
64 | 61 | 3 | 0 |
| 28 Nov. 2023 |
WIG
3 - 0
FLE
59%
23%
18%
|
64 | 72 | 8 | 0 |
| 25 Nov. 2023 |
FLE
0 - 3
STE
32%
29%
39%
|
65 | 73 | 8 | -1 |
| 11 Nov. 2023 |
FLE
3 - 0
EXE
45%
26%
29%
|
64 | 60 | 4 | +1 |
| 07 Nov. 2023 |
FLE
4 - 0
LEI
70%
17%
13%
|
64 | 42 | 22 | 0 |