Derby County vs Everton analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51.8%
Win probability
1.76
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.2%
3-0
5%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.1%
2-0
8.5%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.8%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.2%
23.5%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
11%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.5%
24.7%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
0-1
6.3%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
15.1%
0-2
3.6%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.7%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct. 1977 |
DER
2 - 2
NOR
64%
20%
16%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 1977 |
BIR
3 - 1
DER
53%
23%
24%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 1977 |
DER
1 - 1
WBA
62%
21%
17%
|
85 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 1977 |
NEW
1 - 2
DER
56%
23%
21%
|
85 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 1977 |
WOL
1 - 2
DER
52%
24%
24%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Everton
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct. 1977 |
EVE
4 - 4
NEW
61%
22%
17%
|
87 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 1977 |
LIV
0 - 0
EVE
69%
18%
12%
|
87 | 92 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 1977 |
EVE
1 - 0
BRI
72%
18%
10%
|
86 | 79 | 7 | +1 |
| 08 Oct. 1977 |
QPR
1 - 5
EVE
50%
25%
26%
|
86 | 86 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 1977 |
EVE
3 - 1
WBA
59%
23%
19%
|
86 | 84 | 2 | 0 |