Derby County vs Everton analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.7%
Win probability
1.73
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.3%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.3%
2-0
9.4%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.5%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
23.8%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
5%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.8%
22.5%
Win probability
1.03
Expected goals
0-1
6.5%
1-2
5.8%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14.4%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.9%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Sep. 1920 |
TOT
2 - 0
DER
59%
22%
19%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 1920 |
CHL
1 - 1
DER
58%
23%
19%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | +1 |
| 30 Aug. 1920 |
DER
2 - 2
TOT
52%
23%
25%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Aug. 1920 |
DER
0 - 0
CHL
57%
23%
21%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 May. 1920 |
DER
1 - 0
NEW
61%
23%
16%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Everton
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Sep. 1920 |
NEW
2 - 0
EVE
51%
25%
24%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 1920 |
EVE
1 - 1
BRA
66%
18%
15%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 1920 |
EVE
3 - 1
NEW
69%
19%
12%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Aug. 1920 |
BRA
3 - 3
EVE
57%
23%
21%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 May. 1920 |
EVE
0 - 1
PNE
70%
18%
13%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | 0 |