Derby County vs Chesterfield analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.8%
Win probability
2.16
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.9%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.6%
4-0
4.4%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.3%
3-0
8.1%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.7%
2-0
11.3%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.2%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.8%
19.2%
Draw
0-0
4.8%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.2%
14%
Win probability
0.87
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
4%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.6%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.3%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Aug. 2024 |
BBU
4 - 2
DER
51%
25%
24%
|
75 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
DER
2 - 1
VAD
30%
26%
45%
|
75 | 82 | 7 | 0 |
| 31 Jul. 2024 |
BAR
4 - 3
DER
40%
24%
35%
|
75 | 70 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
STF
2 - 1
DER
17%
22%
61%
|
75 | 56 | 19 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 2024 |
DER
0 - 4
CHE
67%
19%
14%
|
75 | 59 | 16 | 0 |
Matches
Chesterfield
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Aug. 2024 |
CHE
1 - 1
SWI
58%
21%
21%
|
59 | 54 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 2024 |
SCU
0 - 3
CHE
23%
22%
55%
|
59 | 51 | 8 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2024 |
LON
1 - 0
CHE
6%
13%
81%
|
59 | 25 | 34 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 2024 |
DER
0 - 4
CHE
67%
19%
14%
|
59 | 75 | 16 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
CHE
0 - 3
SHE
22%
22%
56%
|
59 | 81 | 22 | 0 |