Derby County vs Chelsea analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
60%
Win probability
2.2
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.2%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.4%
3-0
5.9%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
11%
2-0
8%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
18%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.3%
20%
Draw
0-0
3.3%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
20%
20%
Win probability
1.21
Expected goals
0-1
4%
1-2
5.3%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12.2%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
5.4%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan. 1983 |
DER
3 - 3
LEE
39%
28%
34%
|
66 | 79 | 13 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 1983 |
CUM
3 - 0
DER
57%
23%
20%
|
67 | 63 | 4 | -1 |
| 08 Jan. 1983 |
DER
2 - 0
NTT
24%
24%
52%
|
65 | 85 | 20 | +2 |
| 03 Jan. 1983 |
DER
2 - 0
QPR
42%
26%
32%
|
64 | 76 | 12 | +1 |
| 01 Jan. 1983 |
OLD
2 - 2
DER
62%
22%
16%
|
64 | 69 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Chelsea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan. 1983 |
WOL
2 - 1
CHL
69%
20%
12%
|
68 | 79 | 11 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 1983 |
CHL
6 - 0
CAM
63%
22%
14%
|
67 | 63 | 4 | +1 |
| 12 Jan. 1983 |
CHL
2 - 0
HUR
55%
21%
24%
|
66 | 70 | 4 | +1 |
| 08 Jan. 1983 |
HUR
1 - 1
CHL
63%
19%
18%
|
66 | 70 | 4 | 0 |
| 03 Jan. 1983 |
LEI
3 - 0
CHL
61%
23%
16%
|
67 | 73 | 6 | -1 |