Derby County vs Chelsea analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.2%
Win probability
2.31
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2.2%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.1%
4-0
4.8%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.2%
3-0
8.4%
4-1
4.3%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.7%
2-0
10.9%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.5%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.1%
17.9%
Draw
0-0
4.1%
1-1
8.4%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
17.9%
12.9%
Win probability
0.89
Expected goals
0-1
3.6%
1-2
3.7%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
8.9%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Oct. 1978 |
SOU
1 - 0
DER
50%
25%
25%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 1978 |
NOR
3 - 0
DER
50%
25%
25%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | -1 |
| 23 Sep. 1978 |
DER
2 - 1
SOU
67%
18%
14%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | +1 |
| 16 Sep. 1978 |
DER
3 - 2
WBA
54%
23%
23%
|
84 | 86 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Sep. 1978 |
BOL
2 - 1
DER
43%
27%
30%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Chelsea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep. 1978 |
CHL
1 - 3
WBA
38%
27%
35%
|
78 | 86 | 8 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 1978 |
BIR
1 - 1
CHL
67%
18%
14%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 1978 |
CHL
1 - 4
MAC
35%
28%
37%
|
78 | 88 | 10 | 0 |
| 09 Sep. 1978 |
COV
3 - 2
CHL
70%
18%
13%
|
79 | 85 | 6 | -1 |
| 02 Sep. 1978 |
CHL
0 - 3
LEE
39%
27%
34%
|
79 | 87 | 8 | 0 |