Derby County vs Chelsea analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.5%
Win probability
2.53
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.5%
5-0
2.5%
6-1
1.1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.8%
4-0
5%
5-1
2.5%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
8.1%
3-0
7.9%
4-1
5%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
14.4%
2-0
9.4%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.2%
1-0
7.4%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.7%
16.6%
Draw
0-0
2.9%
1-1
7.4%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
16.6%
12.9%
Win probability
1
Expected goals
0-1
2.9%
1-2
3.7%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
8.6%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.2%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct. 1948 |
EVE
0 - 1
DER
47%
22%
31%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 1948 |
DER
1 - 0
PNE
66%
18%
16%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 1948 |
LIV
0 - 0
DER
51%
22%
27%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 1948 |
DER
1 - 0
BOL
70%
17%
13%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 1948 |
WOL
2 - 2
DER
65%
18%
18%
|
84 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Chelsea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct. 1948 |
CHL
3 - 3
BPO
48%
23%
29%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 1948 |
LIV
1 - 1
CHL
66%
18%
16%
|
77 | 82 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 1948 |
STO
4 - 3
CHL
62%
20%
19%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 1948 |
CHL
1 - 0
BUR
58%
21%
21%
|
77 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 1948 |
PNE
3 - 2
CHL
69%
17%
15%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |