Derby County vs Chelsea analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
64.5%
Win probability
2.24
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.6%
4-0
4%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.2%
3-0
7.1%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.3%
2-0
9.4%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.3%
1-0
8.4%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.9%
19.2%
Draw
0-0
3.8%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.2%
16.3%
Win probability
1.04
Expected goals
0-1
3.9%
1-2
4.6%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
10.6%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.1%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Nov. 1946 |
BOL
5 - 1
DER
48%
22%
29%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 Nov. 1946 |
DER
1 - 4
LIV
58%
20%
22%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | -1 |
| 09 Nov. 1946 |
MUD
4 - 1
DER
46%
23%
31%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 1946 |
DER
2 - 2
PNE
60%
21%
20%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 1946 |
SHE
3 - 2
DER
35%
25%
39%
|
82 | 75 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Chelsea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Nov. 1946 |
CHL
1 - 3
ASV
58%
22%
21%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Nov. 1946 |
SUN
1 - 2
CHL
63%
20%
17%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | +1 |
| 09 Nov. 1946 |
CHL
3 - 2
BRE
56%
20%
24%
|
77 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 1946 |
BPO
1 - 0
CHL
64%
19%
17%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 1946 |
CHL
2 - 1
ARS
48%
23%
29%
|
77 | 85 | 8 | 0 |