Derby County vs Chelsea analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.3%
Win probability
2.58
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.5%
5-0
2.4%
6-1
1.1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.8%
4-0
4.7%
5-1
2.6%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
8%
3-0
7.2%
4-1
5.1%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
14.1%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
2.8%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.8%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
4.4%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.3%
16.7%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
7.2%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
16.7%
14.1%
Win probability
1.1
Expected goals
0-1
2.8%
1-2
3.9%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
9.1%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
3.6%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb. 1939 |
MUD
1 - 1
DER
44%
24%
32%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 1939 |
DER
0 - 1
BIR
71%
16%
13%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 1939 |
DER
1 - 2
BRE
69%
17%
15%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 1939 |
BPO
2 - 2
DER
46%
23%
31%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 1939 |
DER
4 - 1
GRI
68%
17%
15%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Chelsea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Mar. 1939 |
CHL
0 - 1
GRI
58%
20%
22%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 1939 |
CHL
1 - 3
BRE
54%
22%
24%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | -1 |
| 20 Feb. 1939 |
CHL
3 - 1
SHW
65%
18%
17%
|
78 | 72 | 6 | +1 |
| 18 Feb. 1939 |
ARS
1 - 0
CHL
65%
20%
15%
|
78 | 86 | 8 | 0 |
| 13 Feb. 1939 |
SHW
0 - 0
CHL
44%
23%
33%
|
79 | 72 | 7 | -1 |