Derby County vs Chelsea analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.2%
Win probability
2.49
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.4%
5-0
2.5%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.7%
4-0
5%
5-1
2.4%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
8%
3-0
8%
4-1
4.9%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
14.2%
2-0
9.6%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.3%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.9%
16.8%
Draw
0-0
3.1%
1-1
7.6%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
16.8%
12.9%
Win probability
0.99
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
3.7%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
8.7%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.2%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar. 1934 |
DER
0 - 0
SUN
65%
19%
17%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 1934 |
DER
0 - 1
OPA
65%
19%
17%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 1934 |
HUR
2 - 0
DER
54%
23%
23%
|
84 | 85 | 1 | -1 |
| 24 Feb. 1934 |
DER
1 - 1
SHW
58%
20%
22%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 Feb. 1934 |
BIR
2 - 1
DER
43%
25%
31%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Chelsea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar. 1934 |
CHL
0 - 1
SHW
38%
24%
39%
|
76 | 83 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 1934 |
NEW
2 - 2
CHL
66%
18%
15%
|
76 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 1934 |
CHL
3 - 0
BBU
43%
23%
34%
|
75 | 79 | 4 | +1 |
| 24 Feb. 1934 |
MID
2 - 2
CHL
67%
18%
15%
|
75 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 21 Feb. 1934 |
CHL
2 - 0
LIV
46%
22%
32%
|
75 | 77 | 2 | 0 |