Derby County vs Chelsea analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
73.7%
Win probability
2.73
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.4%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2%
5-0
3%
6-1
1.4%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.7%
4-0
5.6%
5-1
3%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
+4
9.4%
3-0
8.1%
4-1
5.6%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
15.5%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
8.1%
4-2
2.8%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.4%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
4.1%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.6%
15%
Draw
0-0
2.4%
1-1
6.5%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
15%
11.2%
Win probability
1
Expected goals
0-1
2.4%
1-2
3.3%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
7.5%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
2.7%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Mar. 1933 |
BOL
1 - 1
DER
48%
22%
30%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 1933 |
MAC
3 - 2
DER
60%
19%
21%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 1933 |
HUR
0 - 0
DER
51%
23%
26%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Mar. 1933 |
SUN
0 - 1
DER
59%
19%
22%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Mar. 1933 |
DER
4 - 4
SUN
65%
17%
18%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Chelsea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Mar. 1933 |
CHL
1 - 2
WBA
40%
24%
36%
|
75 | 82 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 1933 |
BIR
0 - 0
CHL
60%
21%
19%
|
75 | 80 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 1933 |
CHL
1 - 0
BPO
47%
22%
32%
|
75 | 74 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 1933 |
MID
2 - 1
CHL
60%
20%
21%
|
75 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 1933 |
CHL
1 - 1
BOL
44%
23%
33%
|
75 | 78 | 3 | 0 |