Derby County vs Chelsea analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
74%
Win probability
2.63
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.7%
6-0
1.3%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.9%
5-0
3%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.5%
4-0
5.8%
5-1
2.8%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
9.2%
3-0
8.8%
4-1
5.3%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
15.5%
2-0
10%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.8%
1-0
7.6%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.2%
15.3%
Draw
0-0
2.9%
1-1
6.9%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
15.3%
10.7%
Win probability
0.91
Expected goals
0-1
2.6%
1-2
3.2%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
7.4%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
2.5%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov. 1930 |
MID
4 - 1
DER
47%
23%
31%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 22 Nov. 1930 |
DER
1 - 1
WHU
66%
18%
16%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 Nov. 1930 |
ASV
4 - 6
DER
63%
19%
18%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 08 Nov. 1930 |
DER
2 - 2
LIV
68%
17%
15%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 1930 |
BOL
1 - 2
DER
49%
23%
28%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Chelsea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov. 1930 |
CHL
1 - 5
ARS
35%
25%
40%
|
74 | 85 | 11 | 0 |
| 22 Nov. 1930 |
LEE
2 - 3
CHL
68%
18%
14%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 Nov. 1930 |
CHL
2 - 0
MAC
34%
24%
42%
|
73 | 81 | 8 | +1 |
| 08 Nov. 1930 |
BBU
2 - 0
CHL
72%
16%
12%
|
74 | 81 | 7 | -1 |
| 01 Nov. 1930 |
CHL
3 - 0
BPO
47%
23%
30%
|
73 | 73 | 0 | +1 |