Derby County vs Chelsea analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.3%
Win probability
2.37
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3%
4-0
4.2%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.9%
3-0
7.1%
4-1
4.5%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
13%
2-0
9.1%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.5%
1-0
7.6%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4.1%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.3%
18.2%
Draw
0-0
3.2%
1-1
8.1%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
18.2%
15.5%
Win probability
1.07
Expected goals
0-1
3.4%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
10%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.9%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar. 1914 |
BOL
3 - 1
DER
62%
21%
17%
|
77 | 82 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 1914 |
DER
1 - 1
SHW
57%
22%
21%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 28 Feb. 1914 |
WBA
2 - 1
DER
50%
26%
24%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | -1 |
| 21 Feb. 1914 |
DER
1 - 0
EVE
63%
21%
16%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | +1 |
| 14 Feb. 1914 |
SUN
1 - 0
DER
70%
18%
13%
|
78 | 86 | 8 | -1 |
Matches
Chelsea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar. 1914 |
LIV
3 - 0
CHL
62%
21%
17%
|
76 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 Mar. 1914 |
CHL
2 - 0
SHE
53%
24%
23%
|
75 | 79 | 4 | +1 |
| 07 Mar. 1914 |
MID
2 - 0
CHL
62%
21%
17%
|
76 | 79 | 3 | -1 |
| 28 Feb. 1914 |
CHL
0 - 3
ASV
35%
26%
40%
|
76 | 86 | 10 | 0 |
| 14 Feb. 1914 |
CHL
0 - 1
NEW
56%
24%
21%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | -1 |