Derby County vs Chelsea analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.9%
Win probability
2.28
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.9%
4-0
4.4%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.7%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
4.2%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13%
2-0
10.1%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.9%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23%
18.5%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
8.6%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
18.5%
14.6%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
3.8%
1-2
4.2%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
9.8%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.6%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-12%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Mar. 1913 |
DER
1 - 4
SHW
47%
24%
29%
|
78 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Mar. 1913 |
DER
2 - 1
NEW
51%
22%
27%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 1913 |
EVE
2 - 2
DER
70%
17%
13%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 Mar. 1913 |
SHE
4 - 1
DER
67%
18%
15%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 1913 |
DER
0 - 1
ASV
39%
24%
37%
|
78 | 85 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Chelsea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar. 1913 |
CHL
1 - 6
BBU
43%
27%
30%
|
74 | 84 | 10 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 1913 |
LIV
1 - 2
CHL
74%
15%
11%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Mar. 1913 |
SHW
3 - 2
CHL
81%
12%
7%
|
74 | 83 | 9 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 1913 |
CHL
1 - 2
ASV
31%
25%
45%
|
74 | 86 | 12 | 0 |
| 15 Mar. 1913 |
CHL
1 - 3
EVE
48%
24%
28%
|
75 | 81 | 6 | -1 |