Derby County vs Burnley analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
75.3%
Win probability
2.65
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.7%
6-0
1.4%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2%
5-0
3.2%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.7%
4-0
6.1%
5-1
2.8%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
9.5%
3-0
9.2%
4-1
5.3%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
15.9%
2-0
10.4%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.1%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
9%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.1%
14.9%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
6.8%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
14.9%
9.8%
Win probability
0.87
Expected goals
0-1
2.6%
1-2
3%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
6.9%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.3%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
-2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Dec. 1949 |
STO
1 - 3
DER
44%
24%
32%
|
85 | 78 | 7 | 0 |
| 27 Dec. 1949 |
DER
4 - 1
BIR
78%
14%
8%
|
84 | 74 | 10 | +1 |
| 26 Dec. 1949 |
BIR
2 - 2
DER
24%
25%
51%
|
84 | 74 | 10 | 0 |
| 24 Dec. 1949 |
DER
2 - 2
CHL
70%
16%
14%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 Dec. 1949 |
MUD
0 - 1
DER
63%
19%
18%
|
84 | 87 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Burnley
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Dec. 1949 |
BUR
1 - 1
BIR
58%
24%
18%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |
| 27 Dec. 1949 |
BPO
2 - 0
BUR
60%
22%
18%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 1949 |
BUR
0 - 0
BPO
42%
26%
32%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Dec. 1949 |
BOL
0 - 1
BUR
55%
23%
22%
|
80 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 Dec. 1949 |
BUR
0 - 0
ARS
36%
27%
38%
|
80 | 86 | 6 | 0 |