Derby County vs Burnley analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54.8%
Win probability
2.28
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2%
4-0
2.5%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
4.9%
3-0
4.4%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
9.9%
2-0
5.9%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
2.9%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
+2
16.2%
1-0
5.2%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
5.1%
4-3
1.5%
5-4
0.3%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.8%
20%
Draw
0-0
2.3%
1-1
7.8%
2-2
6.7%
3-3
2.6%
4-4
0.6%
5-5
0.1%
0
19.9%
25.2%
Win probability
1.51
Expected goals
0-1
3.4%
1-2
5.9%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
13.8%
0-2
2.6%
1-3
3%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
7.2%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
2.9%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
-1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Feb. 1928 |
ARS
3 - 4
DER
62%
20%
19%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 1928 |
NTT
2 - 0
DER
47%
22%
31%
|
79 | 68 | 11 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 1928 |
DER
0 - 0
NTT
81%
11%
8%
|
79 | 68 | 11 | 0 |
| 21 Jan. 1928 |
LEI
4 - 0
DER
68%
17%
15%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | -1 |
| 07 Jan. 1928 |
DER
2 - 2
OPA
73%
15%
12%
|
80 | 72 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Burnley
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Feb. 1928 |
ASV
3 - 1
BUR
56%
20%
24%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 1928 |
BUR
3 - 0
SUN
57%
20%
23%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 Jan. 1928 |
BUR
5 - 3
SHE
58%
20%
22%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | +1 |
| 07 Jan. 1928 |
BCF
2 - 0
BUR
53%
20%
26%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | -1 |
| 02 Jan. 1928 |
LIV
2 - 2
BUR
60%
20%
21%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |