Derby County vs Brentford analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
68.5%
Win probability
2.54
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.4%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
1.1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.6%
4-0
4.5%
5-1
2.6%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
7.8%
3-0
7.1%
4-1
5%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.8%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
2.8%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.6%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
4.4%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.5%
17%
Draw
0-0
2.6%
1-1
7.3%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
17%
14.5%
Win probability
1.11
Expected goals
0-1
2.9%
1-2
4%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
9.3%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
3.7%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
-3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Feb. 1939 |
BPO
2 - 2
DER
46%
23%
31%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 1939 |
DER
4 - 1
GRI
68%
17%
15%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 1939 |
STO
3 - 0
DER
50%
23%
27%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 1939 |
SUN
1 - 0
DER
52%
22%
26%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 1938 |
DER
2 - 1
ASV
69%
17%
14%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Brentford
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Feb. 1939 |
BRE
2 - 4
ASV
62%
19%
19%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 1939 |
BRE
1 - 2
GRI
60%
20%
20%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 1939 |
SUN
1 - 1
BRE
59%
21%
20%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 1939 |
WOL
5 - 2
BRE
70%
17%
14%
|
80 | 85 | 5 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 1938 |
BRE
2 - 0
EVE
54%
21%
25%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | 0 |