Derby County vs Birmingham City analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
22.3%
Win probability
0.93
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.3%
3-0
1.1%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.6%
2-0
3.5%
3-1
1.7%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.6%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
5.6%
3-2
1.3%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
14.7%
25.4%
Draw
0-0
8.3%
1-1
12%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.4%
52.3%
Win probability
1.57
Expected goals
0-1
12.9%
1-2
9.4%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
24.9%
0-2
10.1%
1-3
4.9%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
16%
0-3
5.3%
1-4
1.9%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
7.5%
0-4
2.1%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.8%
0-5
0.7%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.8%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
+21%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Aug. 2011 |
DER
3 - 0
ASV
17%
22%
61%
|
63 | 87 | 24 | 0 |
| 07 May. 2011 |
REA
2 - 1
DER
76%
16%
8%
|
63 | 80 | 17 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2011 |
DER
0 - 2
BRI
49%
25%
27%
|
64 | 67 | 3 | -1 |
| 25 Apr. 2011 |
NOR
3 - 2
DER
71%
18%
11%
|
64 | 75 | 11 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 2011 |
DER
2 - 4
BUR
34%
26%
40%
|
65 | 74 | 9 | -1 |
Matches
Birmingham City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 May. 2011 |
TOT
2 - 1
BIR
70%
19%
12%
|
83 | 89 | 6 | 0 |
| 15 May. 2011 |
BIR
0 - 2
FUL
38%
28%
34%
|
83 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 07 May. 2011 |
NEW
2 - 1
BIR
56%
23%
21%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 May. 2011 |
BIR
1 - 1
WOL
52%
25%
22%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 2011 |
LIV
5 - 0
BIR
69%
19%
12%
|
83 | 90 | 7 | 0 |