Derby County vs Birmingham City analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
71.7%
Win probability
2.4
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.4%
5-0
2.6%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.6%
4-0
5.4%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.9%
3-0
8.9%
4-1
4.6%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.5%
2-0
11.2%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
21%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.6%
16.9%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
7.9%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
16.9%
11.5%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
0-1
3.3%
1-2
3.4%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
8%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.6%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+18%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr. 1949 |
DER
2 - 0
BUR
68%
18%
14%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 1949 |
CHL
0 - 3
DER
47%
22%
31%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | +1 |
| 15 Apr. 1949 |
BUR
3 - 1
DER
37%
26%
37%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | -1 |
| 09 Apr. 1949 |
DER
2 - 4
NEW
66%
18%
16%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 1949 |
MID
1 - 0
DER
41%
23%
36%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Birmingham City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr. 1949 |
BIR
3 - 0
OPA
32%
27%
41%
|
78 | 85 | 7 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 1949 |
BIR
1 - 1
BPO
35%
26%
39%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 1949 |
OPA
3 - 1
BIR
71%
18%
11%
|
78 | 85 | 7 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 1949 |
HUR
0 - 0
BIR
48%
27%
26%
|
78 | 74 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 1949 |
BIR
1 - 1
ARS
33%
28%
39%
|
78 | 86 | 8 | 0 |