Derby County vs Aston Villa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
46.7%
Win probability
1.43
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2%
3-0
4.2%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
6%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
4.3%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
14%
1-0
12.5%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.9%
26.7%
Draw
0-0
8.8%
1-1
12.6%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.7%
26.6%
Win probability
1.01
Expected goals
0-1
8.8%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
16.9%
0-2
4.4%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
7%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct. 1979 |
TOT
1 - 0
DER
57%
23%
20%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 1979 |
WOL
0 - 0
DER
58%
23%
19%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 1979 |
DER
4 - 0
BOL
59%
22%
19%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 29 Sep. 1979 |
SOU
4 - 0
DER
62%
21%
17%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 1979 |
DER
1 - 0
MID
48%
26%
26%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct. 1979 |
ASV
0 - 0
WBA
51%
25%
24%
|
86 | 87 | 1 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 1979 |
ASV
3 - 0
SOU
63%
21%
16%
|
85 | 84 | 1 | +1 |
| 29 Sep. 1979 |
MID
0 - 0
ASV
48%
27%
25%
|
85 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 1979 |
ASV
0 - 0
ARS
50%
25%
25%
|
85 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 1979 |
CRY
2 - 0
ASV
34%
30%
36%
|
86 | 79 | 7 | -1 |