Derby County vs Aston Villa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.2%
Win probability
2.4
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.1%
4-0
4.2%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.9%
3-0
7%
4-1
4.6%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
13%
2-0
8.8%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.4%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.1%
18.1%
Draw
0-0
3.1%
1-1
8%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
18.1%
15.7%
Win probability
1.09
Expected goals
0-1
3.3%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
10.1%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
-3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Sep. 1946 |
DER
2 - 0
OPA
63%
19%
18%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 1946 |
SUN
3 - 2
DER
50%
22%
28%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 1946 |
DER
4 - 1
CHA
55%
21%
23%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | +1 |
| 27 Mar. 1946 |
DER
4 - 0
BIR
68%
17%
15%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 Mar. 1946 |
DER
1 - 1
BIR
68%
17%
15%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Sep. 1946 |
ASV
0 - 1
EVE
53%
21%
26%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 1946 |
ASV
0 - 1
MID
55%
20%
25%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 1946 |
DER
1 - 1
ASV
66%
18%
16%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 02 Mar. 1946 |
ASV
3 - 4
DER
59%
20%
22%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 1939 |
DER
1 - 0
ASV
62%
19%
18%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | -1 |