Derby County vs Aston Villa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.6%
Win probability
2.21
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.1%
4-0
2.9%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.1%
3-0
5.3%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.4%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
7%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
17.2%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.6%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.8%
20.2%
Draw
0-0
2.9%
1-1
8.6%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
20.2%
22.3%
Win probability
1.32
Expected goals
0-1
3.9%
1-2
5.6%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
13%
0-2
2.6%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
6.1%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
-3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Mar. 1929 |
BUR
2 - 2
DER
58%
20%
22%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 02 Mar. 1929 |
DER
2 - 2
SHE
62%
19%
19%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 1929 |
MAC
2 - 3
DER
62%
19%
20%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 1929 |
SHW
5 - 0
DER
60%
21%
20%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 Feb. 1929 |
DER
2 - 2
BIR
63%
19%
19%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Mar. 1929 |
NEW
2 - 1
ASV
58%
20%
22%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 1929 |
ASV
1 - 2
BIR
67%
18%
16%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | -1 |
| 02 Mar. 1929 |
ASV
1 - 0
ARS
67%
17%
17%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | +1 |
| 23 Feb. 1929 |
BCF
2 - 2
ASV
48%
22%
30%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Feb. 1929 |
ASV
3 - 2
SHE
64%
19%
18%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |