Derby County vs Aston Villa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
50%
Win probability
1.76
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.1%
3-0
4.6%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.7%
2-0
7.9%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.2%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.6%
23.4%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
10.9%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.4%
26.6%
Win probability
1.22
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
6.7%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
15.7%
0-2
3.8%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.3%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.6%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
-3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Sep. 1919 |
MUD
0 - 2
DER
54%
23%
22%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 1919 |
ASV
2 - 2
DER
72%
16%
12%
|
78 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 1919 |
DER
1 - 1
MUD
54%
23%
24%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 1915 |
DER
2 - 0
PNE
61%
22%
18%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | +1 |
| 17 Apr. 1915 |
BCF
2 - 0
DER
33%
27%
41%
|
77 | 64 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Sep. 1919 |
ASV
0 - 3
SUN
54%
21%
26%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 1919 |
ASV
2 - 2
DER
72%
16%
12%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 1919 |
SUN
2 - 1
ASV
59%
20%
20%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 1915 |
NEW
3 - 0
ASV
42%
25%
34%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 1915 |
MUD
1 - 0
ASV
41%
25%
35%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |