Derby County vs Aston Villa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
39.1%
Win probability
1.55
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
1.8%
3-0
3%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
+3
5.1%
2-0
5.7%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
11.6%
1-0
7.4%
2-1
8.5%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.9%
24.1%
Draw
0-0
4.7%
1-1
11%
2-2
6.4%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.1%
36.8%
Win probability
1.5
Expected goals
0-1
7.1%
1-2
8.2%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
19.2%
0-2
5.3%
1-3
4.1%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
10.8%
0-3
2.7%
1-4
1.5%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
4.6%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.5%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
-2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar. 1913 |
DER
3 - 3
BOL
58%
21%
21%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 1913 |
LIV
2 - 1
DER
68%
18%
15%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | -1 |
| 26 Feb. 1913 |
DER
0 - 3
SUN
45%
24%
32%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 1913 |
MUD
4 - 0
DER
67%
19%
14%
|
80 | 84 | 4 | -1 |
| 08 Feb. 1913 |
DER
1 - 0
NOT
75%
15%
11%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | +1 |
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar. 1913 |
BRA
0 - 5
ASV
17%
21%
62%
|
86 | 65 | 21 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 1913 |
ASV
1 - 0
TOT
85%
10%
5%
|
85 | 76 | 9 | +1 |
| 22 Feb. 1913 |
ASV
5 - 0
CRY
93%
5%
2%
|
85 | 70 | 15 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 1913 |
ASV
1 - 1
BBU
74%
15%
11%
|
85 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 1913 |
SHW
1 - 1
ASV
52%
22%
26%
|
85 | 84 | 1 | 0 |