Derby County vs Aston Villa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
39.1%
Win probability
1.66
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.2%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2%
3-0
2.8%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
5.3%
2-0
5.1%
3-1
4.6%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
11.6%
1-0
6.2%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
19.3%
23.1%
Draw
0-0
3.8%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
6.8%
3-3
2%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.1%
37.8%
Win probability
1.63
Expected goals
0-1
6.1%
1-2
8.2%
2-3
3.7%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
-1
19%
0-2
5%
1-3
4.5%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
11.2%
0-3
2.7%
1-4
1.8%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
5.1%
0-4
1.1%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
-2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov. 1906 |
SUN
0 - 2
DER
75%
15%
10%
|
76 | 81 | 5 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 1906 |
DER
0 - 0
NEW
36%
26%
39%
|
76 | 86 | 10 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 1906 |
BBU
5 - 1
DER
64%
19%
17%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 1906 |
DER
3 - 0
PNE
52%
24%
24%
|
76 | 81 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 1906 |
STO
2 - 1
DER
63%
20%
17%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov. 1906 |
ASV
0 - 0
NEW
57%
21%
22%
|
83 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 1906 |
PNE
2 - 0
ASV
45%
24%
31%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | -1 |
| 27 Oct. 1906 |
ASV
2 - 3
MID
88%
8%
4%
|
84 | 72 | 12 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 1906 |
MAC
4 - 2
ASV
58%
20%
22%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 1906 |
ASV
3 - 1
BCF
75%
15%
10%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |