Derby County vs Arsenal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
23%
Win probability
0.81
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
1.1%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
<0%
+3
1.4%
2-0
3.9%
3-1
1.4%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.5%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
5.1%
3-2
0.9%
4-3
0.1%
+1
15.8%
28.5%
Draw
0-0
12%
1-1
12.7%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
28.5%
48.6%
Win probability
1.32
Expected goals
0-1
15.7%
1-2
8.4%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
25.7%
0-2
10.3%
1-3
3.7%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0%
-2
14.5%
0-3
4.5%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.1%
-3
5.9%
0-4
1.5%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Mar. 1991 |
DER
1 - 7
LIV
14%
22%
65%
|
74 | 90 | 16 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 1991 |
CRY
2 - 1
DER
66%
21%
13%
|
74 | 80 | 6 | 0 |
| 02 Mar. 1991 |
DER
3 - 3
SUN
59%
23%
18%
|
74 | 69 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 1991 |
DER
0 - 0
NOR
37%
29%
34%
|
74 | 81 | 7 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 1991 |
ASV
3 - 2
DER
68%
21%
11%
|
74 | 82 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Mar. 1991 |
NOR
0 - 0
ARS
30%
29%
41%
|
89 | 81 | 8 | 0 |
| 20 Mar. 1991 |
ARS
1 - 1
NTT
59%
23%
18%
|
89 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 1991 |
ARS
2 - 0
LEE
72%
19%
10%
|
89 | 80 | 9 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 1991 |
ARS
2 - 1
CAM
79%
16%
6%
|
88 | 64 | 24 | +1 |
| 03 Mar. 1991 |
LIV
0 - 1
ARS
60%
23%
17%
|
88 | 90 | 2 | 0 |