Derby County vs Arsenal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59.1%
Win probability
1.92
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.4%
3-0
6.4%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.1%
2-0
10.1%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.1%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
21.9%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.9%
19%
Win probability
0.99
Expected goals
0-1
5.4%
1-2
5.1%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
12.4%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.8%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Feb. 1975 |
DER
0 - 0
LEE
46%
25%
28%
|
88 | 91 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 1975 |
QPR
4 - 1
DER
41%
27%
32%
|
88 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 1975 |
WOL
0 - 1
DER
54%
24%
22%
|
88 | 87 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 1975 |
DER
2 - 0
LIV
52%
26%
22%
|
88 | 91 | 3 | 0 |
| 28 Dec. 1974 |
MAC
1 - 2
DER
49%
26%
25%
|
88 | 86 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Feb. 1975 |
WOL
1 - 0
ARS
53%
24%
24%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 1975 |
ARS
2 - 0
LIV
40%
31%
30%
|
87 | 91 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 1975 |
MID
0 - 0
ARS
39%
27%
34%
|
87 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 1975 |
ARS
2 - 1
CUM
66%
21%
13%
|
87 | 77 | 10 | 0 |
| 28 Dec. 1974 |
SHE
1 - 1
ARS
44%
26%
30%
|
87 | 84 | 3 | 0 |