Derby County vs Arsenal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.1%
Win probability
2.14
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.9%
4-0
2.9%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.8%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.2%
2-0
7.5%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.2%
1-0
7%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4.4%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.1%
20.6%
Draw
0-0
3.3%
1-1
9%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
20.6%
22.3%
Win probability
1.28
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
5.7%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
13.2%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
6.1%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Jan. 1952 |
MAC
4 - 2
DER
47%
23%
30%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
| 29 Dec. 1951 |
STO
3 - 1
DER
43%
24%
33%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 1951 |
DER
2 - 1
HUR
76%
14%
11%
|
81 | 72 | 9 | 0 |
| 25 Dec. 1951 |
HUR
1 - 1
DER
41%
24%
35%
|
81 | 72 | 9 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 1951 |
DER
1 - 1
ASV
66%
17%
17%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Jan. 1952 |
ARS
2 - 1
ASV
71%
16%
13%
|
85 | 80 | 5 | 0 |
| 29 Dec. 1951 |
SUN
4 - 1
ARS
45%
25%
30%
|
86 | 79 | 7 | -1 |
| 26 Dec. 1951 |
OPA
1 - 1
ARS
60%
21%
20%
|
86 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Dec. 1951 |
ARS
4 - 1
OPA
61%
19%
20%
|
85 | 86 | 1 | +1 |
| 22 Dec. 1951 |
ARS
2 - 2
WOL
65%
18%
17%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | 0 |