Derby County vs Arsenal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59.2%
Win probability
2.15
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.1%
3-0
5.8%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.7%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
7%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.8%
1-0
7.6%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.5%
20.4%
Draw
0-0
3.6%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
20.4%
20.5%
Win probability
1.19
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12.5%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
5.5%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Mar. 1951 |
DER
1 - 2
NEW
61%
19%
20%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Feb. 1951 |
WBA
1 - 2
DER
40%
24%
36%
|
82 | 76 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 1951 |
BPO
3 - 1
DER
49%
23%
28%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 03 Feb. 1951 |
DER
2 - 2
BOL
71%
16%
13%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Jan. 1951 |
FUL
3 - 5
DER
37%
25%
38%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Mar. 1951 |
ARS
2 - 1
ASV
74%
15%
12%
|
85 | 78 | 7 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 1951 |
MUD
3 - 1
ARS
58%
22%
21%
|
85 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 Feb. 1951 |
ARS
2 - 5
CHA
77%
14%
9%
|
86 | 76 | 10 | -1 |
| 17 Feb. 1951 |
WBA
2 - 0
ARS
39%
26%
36%
|
86 | 75 | 11 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 1951 |
MUD
1 - 0
ARS
58%
21%
21%
|
86 | 85 | 1 | 0 |