Derby County vs Arsenal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
50.6%
Win probability
1.79
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.2%
3-0
4.7%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.9%
2-0
7.9%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.4%
1-0
8.8%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.6%
23.2%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.2%
26.2%
Win probability
1.22
Expected goals
0-1
6%
1-2
6.6%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
15.5%
0-2
3.7%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.2%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.5%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Nov. 1947 |
CHA
1 - 5
DER
56%
21%
24%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 Nov. 1947 |
DER
1 - 1
MUD
55%
22%
24%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 Nov. 1947 |
SHE
1 - 2
DER
51%
22%
27%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 1947 |
DER
4 - 2
MID
55%
21%
24%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 1947 |
LIV
2 - 2
DER
62%
19%
19%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Nov. 1947 |
ARS
2 - 0
HUR
70%
17%
13%
|
86 | 77 | 9 | 0 |
| 15 Nov. 1947 |
BBU
0 - 1
ARS
41%
25%
34%
|
86 | 75 | 11 | 0 |
| 08 Nov. 1947 |
ARS
2 - 1
BPO
66%
19%
16%
|
86 | 81 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 1947 |
CHL
0 - 0
ARS
46%
24%
31%
|
86 | 77 | 9 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 1947 |
ARS
1 - 1
EVE
65%
19%
16%
|
86 | 81 | 5 | 0 |