Derby County vs Arsenal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54.5%
Win probability
2
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.5%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.1%
3-0
5.1%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
9.3%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.5%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
4.1%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.4%
21.6%
Draw
0-0
3.8%
1-1
9.7%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
21.6%
23.8%
Win probability
1.26
Expected goals
0-1
4.8%
1-2
6.1%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
14.1%
0-2
3.1%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
6.6%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.3%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May. 1947 |
DER
1 - 0
HUR
67%
17%
16%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 1947 |
DER
2 - 1
LEE
76%
14%
10%
|
81 | 71 | 10 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 1947 |
GRI
2 - 0
DER
45%
22%
33%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | -1 |
| 12 Apr. 1947 |
DER
1 - 0
CHA
61%
19%
20%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | +1 |
| 08 Apr. 1947 |
WOL
7 - 2
DER
73%
15%
12%
|
82 | 87 | 5 | -1 |
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr. 1947 |
ARS
5 - 3
GRI
66%
19%
16%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 1947 |
CHA
2 - 2
ARS
51%
23%
26%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 1947 |
ARS
4 - 0
MID
56%
21%
23%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 1947 |
HUR
0 - 0
ARS
42%
25%
34%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 1947 |
BOL
1 - 3
ARS
48%
24%
29%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |