Derby County vs Arsenal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
49.3%
Win probability
1.83
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.2%
3-0
4.3%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.7%
2-0
7.1%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
15%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.9%
22.8%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
10.3%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
22.8%
27.9%
Win probability
1.33
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
6.9%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
15.9%
0-2
3.7%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
7.9%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.9%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar. 1934 |
LIV
4 - 2
DER
54%
21%
25%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 1934 |
ARS
1 - 0
DER
68%
18%
14%
|
83 | 87 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 1934 |
DER
1 - 0
CHL
70%
17%
13%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 1934 |
DER
0 - 0
SUN
65%
19%
17%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 1934 |
DER
0 - 1
OPA
65%
19%
17%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar. 1934 |
STO
1 - 1
ARS
32%
26%
42%
|
87 | 76 | 11 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 1934 |
ARS
1 - 0
DER
68%
18%
14%
|
87 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 1934 |
ARS
3 - 2
WOL
72%
16%
13%
|
87 | 76 | 11 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 1934 |
ARS
3 - 2
ASV
63%
19%
18%
|
87 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 08 Mar. 1934 |
LEI
4 - 1
ARS
45%
24%
31%
|
88 | 80 | 8 | -1 |