Derby County vs Arsenal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
49.1%
Win probability
1.96
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.4%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
8%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
6%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.8%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
4.4%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.1%
21.9%
Draw
0-0
3.3%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
6.7%
3-3
2.1%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
21.9%
29%
Win probability
1.47
Expected goals
0-1
4.8%
1-2
6.9%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
15.8%
0-2
3.5%
1-3
3.4%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
8.3%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
3.4%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb. 1933 |
MAC
2 - 1
DER
59%
20%
22%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 1933 |
DER
3 - 0
SUN
64%
18%
18%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | +1 |
| 01 Feb. 1933 |
BIR
3 - 1
DER
47%
23%
29%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | -1 |
| 21 Jan. 1933 |
DER
2 - 2
WBA
65%
18%
17%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 1933 |
SHW
0 - 0
DER
67%
17%
16%
|
83 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb. 1933 |
ARS
1 - 1
BPO
75%
14%
11%
|
88 | 73 | 15 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 1933 |
EVE
1 - 1
ARS
56%
20%
24%
|
89 | 83 | 6 | -1 |
| 01 Feb. 1933 |
BOL
0 - 4
ARS
40%
24%
37%
|
88 | 78 | 10 | +1 |
| 21 Jan. 1933 |
ARS
2 - 1
MAC
73%
15%
12%
|
88 | 80 | 8 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 1933 |
SUN
3 - 2
ARS
46%
22%
31%
|
89 | 81 | 8 | -1 |