Derby County vs Arsenal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.2%
Win probability
2.49
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.4%
5-0
2.4%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.6%
4-0
4.7%
5-1
2.4%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
7.8%
3-0
7.6%
4-1
4.9%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
14%
2-0
9.2%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
20%
1-0
7.4%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.8%
17%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
7.6%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
17%
13.7%
Win probability
1.03
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
3.9%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
9%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.4%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov. 1912 |
CHL
3 - 1
DER
54%
23%
23%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 Nov. 1912 |
DER
1 - 2
OLD
64%
19%
17%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | -1 |
| 16 Nov. 1912 |
NEW
2 - 4
DER
74%
16%
10%
|
78 | 85 | 7 | +1 |
| 09 Nov. 1912 |
DER
5 - 1
SHE
59%
21%
20%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | +1 |
| 02 Nov. 1912 |
BOL
1 - 1
DER
69%
18%
14%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov. 1912 |
ARS
0 - 1
BBU
34%
27%
40%
|
76 | 85 | 9 | 0 |
| 23 Nov. 1912 |
SHW
2 - 0
ARS
78%
13%
9%
|
76 | 84 | 8 | 0 |
| 16 Nov. 1912 |
ARS
0 - 0
EVE
44%
25%
31%
|
76 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
| 09 Nov. 1912 |
WBA
2 - 1
ARS
59%
22%
20%
|
77 | 78 | 1 | -1 |
| 02 Nov. 1912 |
ARS
0 - 4
MAC
49%
24%
27%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |