Conmebol Sudamericana 1/32
Global 4-4
Dep. Quito vs Univ. San Martín analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
43.6%
Win probability
1.6
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.2%
3-0
3.6%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6%
2-0
6.8%
3-1
4.8%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.1%
1-0
8.4%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.4%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.3%
32.1%
Win probability
1.34
Expected goals
0-1
7.1%
1-2
7.6%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
17.9%
0-2
4.7%
1-3
3.4%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
9.2%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.5%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Dep. Quito
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul. 2010 |
ESP
2 - 3
QUI
51%
27%
23%
|
73 | 69 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 2010 |
QUI
1 - 1
IVT
49%
23%
28%
|
73 | 73 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 2010 |
UCE
3 - 0
QUI
50%
27%
23%
|
74 | 70 | 4 | -1 |
| 11 Jul. 2010 |
QUI
1 - 2
CUE
59%
22%
18%
|
75 | 70 | 5 | -1 |
| 05 Jul. 2010 |
QUI
0 - 2
BSC
59%
23%
18%
|
75 | 73 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Univ. San Martín
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Aug. 2010 |
HUA
1 - 2
SAM
33%
25%
42%
|
77 | 69 | 8 | 0 |
| 25 Jul. 2010 |
SAM
1 - 0
VAL
53%
24%
23%
|
77 | 73 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 2010 |
LEO
4 - 2
SAM
38%
26%
36%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 Jul. 2010 |
SAM
4 - 0
GAL
74%
18%
8%
|
77 | 59 | 18 | 0 |
| 03 Jul. 2010 |
TOT
2 - 2
SAM
28%
26%
46%
|
77 | 64 | 13 | 0 |