Conmebol Sudamericana Quarter-finals
Global 2-2
Deportes Tolima vs Independiente analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
50.6%
Win probability
1.64
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.8%
3-0
4.9%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.4%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
5.2%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.5%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.7%
24.5%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.5%
24.9%
Win probability
1.08
Expected goals
0-1
7.1%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
15.5%
0-2
3.8%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.6%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Deportes Tolima
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct. 2010 |
IND
1 - 0
TOL
42%
26%
32%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 2010 |
TOL
3 - 0
EQU
52%
26%
22%
|
79 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 2010 |
PER
1 - 2
TOL
33%
26%
41%
|
79 | 70 | 9 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2010 |
TOL
3 - 0
BAN
44%
27%
29%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | +1 |
| 09 Oct. 2010 |
TOL
2 - 0
ENV
65%
22%
14%
|
78 | 66 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
Independiente
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct. 2010 |
IND
0 - 0
BOC
43%
26%
31%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2010 |
IND
4 - 2
DEF
49%
25%
26%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 2010 |
ALB
3 - 1
IND
38%
27%
35%
|
78 | 72 | 6 | 0 |
| 10 Oct. 2010 |
IND
1 - 0
RAC
52%
26%
22%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 2010 |
GOD
4 - 1
IND
49%
26%
25%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | 0 |