Copa Colombia Last 16
Global 2-2
Deportes Tolima vs Alianza FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54.7%
Win probability
1.67
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.3%
3-0
5.7%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.4%
2-0
10.3%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.8%
1-0
12.3%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.8%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
7.4%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.3%
21%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
6.9%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.9%
0-2
3.2%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5.3%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Deportes Tolima
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug. 2023 |
TOL
1 - 0
HUI
68%
21%
10%
|
80 | 63 | 17 | 0 |
| 08 Aug. 2023 |
MIL
1 - 0
TOL
44%
27%
29%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 Jul. 2023 |
TOL
1 - 1
AGU
56%
25%
20%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2023 |
ALI
2 - 0
TOL
39%
26%
34%
|
81 | 72 | 9 | -1 |
| 21 Jul. 2023 |
TOL
3 - 1
ONC
62%
23%
15%
|
80 | 71 | 9 | +1 |
Matches
Alianza FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug. 2023 |
ALI
3 - 1
ENV
66%
21%
13%
|
75 | 67 | 8 | 0 |
| 05 Aug. 2023 |
HUI
0 - 0
ALI
26%
28%
46%
|
75 | 62 | 13 | 0 |
| 30 Jul. 2023 |
ALI
1 - 0
MIL
36%
26%
37%
|
74 | 80 | 6 | +1 |
| 27 Jul. 2023 |
ALI
2 - 0
TOL
39%
26%
34%
|
72 | 81 | 9 | +2 |
| 22 Jul. 2023 |
PAS
1 - 1
ALI
41%
29%
30%
|
72 | 72 | 0 | 0 |