Defensor Tacna vs Nacional FBC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
17.4%
Win probability
0.91
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.8%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.1%
2-0
2.5%
3-1
1.4%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
4.3%
1-0
5.5%
2-1
4.7%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
11.8%
21.8%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.8%
60.7%
Win probability
1.91
Expected goals
0-1
11.4%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.6%
0-2
10.9%
1-3
6.3%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
18.7%
0-3
6.9%
1-4
3%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0%
-3
10.5%
0-4
3.3%
1-5
1.1%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
4.6%
0-5
1.3%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0%
-5
1.7%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.5%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Defensor Tacna
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Oct. 2023 |
APA
3 - 4
DET
49%
21%
30%
|
5 | 8 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2023 |
DET
0 - 3
EGB
14%
21%
66%
|
6 | 12 | 6 | -1 |
| 27 Sep. 2023 |
EGB
1 - 1
DET
66%
18%
16%
|
6 | 12 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 2023 |
DET
1 - 1
APA
30%
21%
50%
|
5 | 8 | 3 | +1 |
| 17 Sep. 2023 |
NAC
4 - 1
DET
51%
21%
28%
|
7 | 9 | 2 | -2 |
Matches
Nacional FBC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Oct. 2023 |
NAC
1 - 0
VAL
6%
13%
82%
|
10 | 69 | 59 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 2023 |
FCA
3 - 1
NAC
39%
25%
36%
|
11 | 10 | 1 | -1 |
| 28 Sep. 2023 |
NAC
2 - 1
FCA
34%
21%
45%
|
10 | 11 | 1 | +1 |
| 24 Sep. 2023 |
VAL
1 - 0
NAC
85%
10%
5%
|
10 | 68 | 58 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 2023 |
NAC
4 - 1
DET
51%
21%
28%
|
9 | 7 | 2 | +1 |