Conmebol Sudamericana 1/16
Global 4-1
Defensor Sporting vs Tacuary analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
62.9%
Win probability
2.04
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2%
4-0
3.7%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.3%
3-0
7.2%
4-1
3.4%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.4%
2-0
10.6%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.2%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
20.6%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
9.7%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.6%
16.5%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
4.8%
1-2
4.6%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Defensor Sporting
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Sep. 2007 |
DEF
0 - 0
DAN
47%
25%
28%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 2007 |
DEF
1 - 0
NAC
53%
23%
24%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2007 |
TAC
1 - 1
DEF
34%
28%
39%
|
81 | 73 | 8 | 0 |
| 26 Aug. 2007 |
TAC
1 - 0
DEF
30%
28%
41%
|
81 | 70 | 11 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 2007 |
LIB
2 - 2
DEF
47%
25%
28%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Tacuary
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Sep. 2007 |
SAN
2 - 4
TAC
41%
27%
33%
|
73 | 69 | 4 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 2007 |
TAC
0 - 1
GUA
56%
25%
19%
|
74 | 65 | 9 | -1 |
| 31 Aug. 2007 |
TAC
1 - 1
DEF
34%
28%
39%
|
73 | 81 | 8 | +1 |
| 26 Aug. 2007 |
LQE
0 - 3
TAC
55%
24%
22%
|
72 | 77 | 5 | +1 |
| 22 Aug. 2007 |
SPT
1 - 2
TAC
36%
28%
37%
|
72 | 65 | 7 | 0 |