Copa Uruguay Semi-finals
Global 4-2
Defensor Sporting vs Progreso analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59%
Win probability
1.88
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.5%
4-0
3%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.3%
3-0
6.5%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10%
2-0
10.4%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.2%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
22.2%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.2%
18.7%
Win probability
0.95
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
5%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.4%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
4.7%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Defensor Sporting
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct. 2022 |
PRO
1 - 1
DEF
36%
26%
38%
|
74 | 68 | 6 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 2022 |
DEF
2 - 3
REN
73%
18%
9%
|
74 | 56 | 18 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 2022 |
DEP
0 - 0
DEF
33%
28%
38%
|
74 | 69 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2022 |
DEF
1 - 1
DAN
56%
25%
19%
|
74 | 70 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 2022 |
NAC
1 - 1
DEF
59%
23%
18%
|
74 | 81 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Progreso
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct. 2022 |
PRO
1 - 1
DEF
36%
26%
38%
|
68 | 74 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 2022 |
TOR
1 - 2
PRO
56%
23%
21%
|
67 | 69 | 2 | +1 |
| 25 Sep. 2022 |
CEN
1 - 1
PRO
36%
29%
36%
|
67 | 62 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 2022 |
REN
0 - 3
PRO
37%
26%
38%
|
66 | 61 | 5 | +1 |
| 17 Sep. 2022 |
PRO
3 - 1
SUD
45%
27%
29%
|
65 | 62 | 3 | +1 |