Qualifying stages Copa Libertadores Primera Fase Final
First-leg 0-2
Defensor Sporting vs Monagas analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.2%
Win probability
2.08
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.3%
4-0
4.2%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.9%
3-0
8.1%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.3%
2-0
11.7%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.2%
1-0
11.3%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
19.8%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.8%
14%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
0-1
4.5%
1-2
3.9%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.8%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.2%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
-6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Defensor Sporting
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Feb. 2025 |
MON
2 - 0
DEF
33%
25%
42%
|
82 | 68 | 14 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 2025 |
DEF
2 - 0
BOS
51%
25%
25%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | +1 |
| 07 Dec. 2024 |
NAC
2 - 2
DEF
53%
23%
24%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 Nov. 2024 |
CSM
0 - 0
DEF
49%
25%
26%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Nov. 2024 |
CEL
3 - 0
DEF
40%
27%
32%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Monagas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Feb. 2025 |
EST
2 - 0
MON
39%
26%
34%
|
69 | 65 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Feb. 2025 |
MON
2 - 0
DEF
33%
25%
42%
|
68 | 82 | 14 | +1 |
| 31 Jan. 2025 |
MON
1 - 4
TAC
48%
27%
26%
|
69 | 72 | 3 | -1 |
| 25 Jan. 2025 |
MON
1 - 1
DEP
44%
27%
30%
|
68 | 72 | 4 | +1 |
| 17 Jan. 2025 |
AGU
4 - 2
MON
65%
21%
14%
|
68 | 81 | 13 | 0 |