Conmebol Sudamericana Last 16
Global 2-4
Defensor Sporting vs River Plate analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
48.7%
Win probability
1.64
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.6%
3-0
4.5%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
5.2%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.8%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.1%
24.5%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
24.5%
26.8%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
0-1
7.1%
1-2
6.7%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
16.2%
0-2
4.1%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.3%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.5%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Defensor Sporting
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep. 2008 |
RIV
1 - 3
DEF
48%
23%
29%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 2008 |
DEF
0 - 1
LFC
63%
21%
17%
|
82 | 75 | 7 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2008 |
BVS
0 - 3
DEF
24%
27%
49%
|
82 | 66 | 16 | 0 |
| 27 Aug. 2008 |
LIB
3 - 3
DEF
44%
25%
30%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 2008 |
DEF
0 - 0
CER
76%
16%
8%
|
82 | 65 | 17 | 0 |
Matches
River Plate
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep. 2008 |
SMA
3 - 1
RIV
26%
26%
48%
|
84 | 74 | 10 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 2008 |
RIV
1 - 2
VEL
56%
23%
21%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 2008 |
ARS
2 - 2
RIV
35%
27%
38%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2008 |
RIV
0 - 0
SLO
57%
23%
20%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 2008 |
BAN
2 - 1
RIV
39%
26%
35%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |