Conmebol Sudamericana Quarter-finals
Global 4-2
Defensa y Justicia vs Bahía analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54.4%
Win probability
1.59
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3%
3-0
5.7%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
8%
2-0
10.8%
3-1
5%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.7%
1-0
13.5%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.4%
25.1%
Draw
0-0
8.5%
1-1
11.8%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.1%
20.5%
Win probability
0.87
Expected goals
0-1
7.4%
1-2
5.1%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.1%
-1
13.9%
0-2
3.2%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Defensa y Justicia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Dec. 2020 |
CAU
1 - 3
DYJ
38%
28%
34%
|
80 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 09 Dec. 2020 |
BAH
2 - 3
DYJ
45%
27%
28%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Dec. 2020 |
IND
1 - 0
DYJ
44%
27%
30%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Dec. 2020 |
VAS
0 - 1
DYJ
40%
28%
32%
|
80 | 76 | 4 | 0 |
| 29 Nov. 2020 |
DYJ
2 - 3
CCS
67%
20%
13%
|
80 | 68 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
Bahía
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Dec. 2020 |
PAL
3 - 0
BAH
77%
16%
8%
|
77 | 89 | 12 | 0 |
| 09 Dec. 2020 |
BAH
2 - 3
DYJ
45%
27%
28%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | -1 |
| 05 Dec. 2020 |
BAH
0 - 2
CEA
44%
27%
30%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | -1 |
| 01 Dec. 2020 |
CAU
0 - 0
BAH
42%
28%
30%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | +1 |
| 28 Nov. 2020 |
BAH
1 - 3
SAO
32%
26%
43%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | -1 |