Danubio vs Peñarol analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
25.6%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.4%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.9%
2-0
4.3%
3-1
1.9%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
6.6%
1-0
9%
2-1
6.1%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
16.6%
27.1%
Draw
0-0
9.5%
1-1
12.7%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.1%
47.3%
Win probability
1.4
Expected goals
0-1
13.3%
1-2
8.9%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
24.4%
0-2
9.3%
1-3
4.2%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
14.2%
0-3
4.4%
1-4
1.5%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
6%
0-4
1.5%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0%
-4
2%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+7%
+32%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
11
1º
3º
3º
10
4º
8º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
14 | 14 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
12 | 12 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
|
3º
|
11 | 11 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
|
4º
|
10 | 10 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
9 | 9 |
5º
|
0% | |
|
6º
|
9 | 9 |
6º
|
0% | |
|
7º
|
8 | 8 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
4 | 4 |
8º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Final Series
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Danubio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Jul. 2023 |
BOS
1 - 0
DAN
50%
25%
25%
|
74 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 Jun. 2023 |
EME
2 - 1
DAN
58%
23%
19%
|
75 | 80 | 5 | -1 |
| 24 Jun. 2023 |
LUZ
0 - 2
DAN
49%
27%
24%
|
74 | 74 | 0 | +1 |
| 16 Jun. 2023 |
DAN
1 - 0
TOR
43%
27%
30%
|
73 | 71 | 2 | +1 |
| 09 Jun. 2023 |
DAN
1 - 0
HUR
34%
28%
39%
|
72 | 80 | 8 | +1 |
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Jul. 2023 |
PEÑ
2 - 0
TOR
61%
23%
16%
|
82 | 72 | 10 | 0 |
| 30 Jun. 2023 |
PEÑ
1 - 2
AMF
35%
28%
38%
|
82 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 24 Jun. 2023 |
MWA
0 - 0
PEÑ
27%
26%
47%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | 0 |
| 18 Jun. 2023 |
PEÑ
1 - 3
RIV
53%
25%
22%
|
82 | 75 | 7 | 0 |
| 07 Jun. 2023 |
PEÑ
0 - 3
DYJ
32%
27%
41%
|
82 | 85 | 3 | 0 |