Conmebol Sudamericana 1/16
Global 2-3
Danubio vs Peñarol analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
31.7%
Win probability
1.44
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.2%
3-0
2%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.7%
2-0
4.3%
3-1
3.6%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
9.2%
1-0
5.9%
2-1
7.5%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
17.3%
23.2%
Draw
0-0
4.1%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
6.5%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.2%
45.1%
Win probability
1.75
Expected goals
0-1
7.2%
1-2
9.1%
2-3
3.8%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
-1
21%
0-2
6.3%
1-3
5.3%
2-4
1.7%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
13.6%
0-3
3.7%
1-4
2.3%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
6.7%
0-4
1.6%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
2.6%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.8%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Danubio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Dec. 2003 |
DAN
0 - 4
TAC
59%
23%
19%
|
76 | 70 | 6 | 0 |
| 29 Nov. 2003 |
DAN
1 - 0
PLA
72%
18%
10%
|
76 | 63 | 13 | 0 |
| 27 Nov. 2003 |
NAC
3 - 0
DAN
58%
22%
20%
|
77 | 79 | 2 | -1 |
| 23 Nov. 2003 |
DAN
2 - 0
RIV
57%
23%
21%
|
76 | 70 | 6 | +1 |
| 09 Nov. 2003 |
DAN
0 - 4
TAC
61%
22%
17%
|
77 | 69 | 8 | -1 |
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Apr. 2004 |
PEÑ
2 - 0
AME
38%
24%
38%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 2004 |
SAO
1 - 1
PEÑ
47%
25%
28%
|
81 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 Mar. 2004 |
STR
2 - 0
PEÑ
25%
23%
51%
|
82 | 69 | 13 | -1 |
| 16 Mar. 2004 |
PEÑ
4 - 0
STR
70%
19%
11%
|
81 | 70 | 11 | +1 |
| 02 Mar. 2004 |
PEÑ
1 - 1
SAO
51%
25%
23%
|
81 | 84 | 3 | 0 |