Série D Brazil Quarter-finals
Global 6-2
Cuiabá vs Independiente PA analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
67%
Win probability
2.24
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.8%
4-0
4.4%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.6%
3-0
7.9%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.9%
2-0
10.5%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.1%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.3%
18.7%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
18.7%
14.3%
Win probability
0.93
Expected goals
0-1
3.9%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.6%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.4%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Cuiabá
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Oct. 2011 |
CUI
3 - 0
SAM
53%
24%
23%
|
50 | 50 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2011 |
SAM
2 - 1
CUI
47%
25%
28%
|
50 | 50 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 2011 |
CUI
4 - 0
PEN
67%
19%
14%
|
50 | 46 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 2011 |
NAC
1 - 3
CUI
31%
25%
44%
|
50 | 39 | 11 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 2011 |
CUI
3 - 3
PLA
76%
15%
8%
|
50 | 36 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Independiente PA
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Oct. 2011 |
IND
3 - 1
PEN
49%
25%
27%
|
43 | 44 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2011 |
PEN
1 - 0
IND
46%
25%
29%
|
44 | 44 | 0 | -1 |
| 18 Sep. 2011 |
IND
1 - 0
TDC
53%
23%
24%
|
44 | 41 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 2011 |
CAC
1 - 2
IND
42%
26%
33%
|
43 | 42 | 1 | +1 |
| 28 Aug. 2011 |
IND
2 - 1
SAM
32%
25%
43%
|
42 | 51 | 9 | +1 |