Europa League Fase Final 1/16
Global 3-1
CSKA Moskva vs Aston Villa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
34.5%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1%
3-0
2.4%
4-1
1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.6%
2-0
5.8%
3-1
3.3%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
9.8%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
7.8%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.7%
26.4%
Draw
0-0
7.4%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.3%
39.2%
Win probability
1.35
Expected goals
0-1
10%
1-2
8.5%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
21.2%
0-2
6.8%
1-3
3.8%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
11.5%
0-3
3%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.6%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.4%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
CSKA Moskva
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Feb. 2009 |
ASV
1 - 1
CSK
53%
25%
22%
|
86 | 89 | 3 | 0 |
| 04 Dec. 2008 |
ASN
3 - 4
CSK
39%
28%
33%
|
85 | 84 | 1 | +1 |
| 27 Nov. 2008 |
CSK
2 - 1
LPO
59%
23%
18%
|
85 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 22 Nov. 2008 |
YAR
1 - 0
CSK
19%
26%
56%
|
86 | 65 | 21 | -1 |
| 16 Nov. 2008 |
CSK
4 - 0
FCR
57%
24%
19%
|
86 | 80 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb. 2009 |
ASV
0 - 1
CHL
24%
27%
50%
|
89 | 95 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 2009 |
ASV
1 - 1
CSK
53%
25%
22%
|
89 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 2009 |
EVE
3 - 1
ASV
47%
25%
28%
|
89 | 90 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 Feb. 2009 |
BBU
0 - 2
ASV
40%
25%
35%
|
89 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 2009 |
ASV
3 - 1
DON
71%
20%
10%
|
89 | 69 | 20 | 0 |