Vargas Torres vs 9 de Octubre analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
27.5%
Win probability
0.91
Expected goals
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.5%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
<0%
+3
1.9%
2-0
4.9%
3-1
1.8%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
7%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
6%
3-2
1.1%
4-3
0.1%
+1
18%
29.2%
Draw
0-0
11.8%
1-1
13.2%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
29.2%
43.3%
Win probability
1.22
Expected goals
0-1
14.5%
1-2
8.1%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
24.2%
0-2
8.9%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0%
-2
12.6%
0-3
3.6%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.1%
-3
4.7%
0-4
1.1%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
1.4%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
-3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
20
2º
8º
7º
20
5º
10º
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
34 | 66 |
1º
|
59% | |
|
2º
|
29 | 61 |
2º
|
40% | |
|
3º
|
28 | 57 |
3º
|
31% | |
|
4º
|
26 | 53 |
4º
|
19% | |
|
5º
|
20 | 49 |
5º
|
26% | |
|
|
6º
|
20 | 49 |
6º
|
27.5% | |
|
|
7º
|
20 | 41 |
7º
|
29% | |
|
8º
|
18 | 38 |
8º
|
24% | |
|
9º
|
18 | 38 |
9º
|
24% | |
|
10º
|
17 | 34 |
10º
|
43.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 5.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
74% | 92% |
|
Relegation
|
26% | 2.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Vargas Torres
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May. 2024 |
ESA
2 - 2
CSV
30%
30%
41%
|
61 | 51 | 10 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 2024 |
CSV
2 - 1
RIV
28%
30%
42%
|
60 | 70 | 10 | +1 |
| 16 Apr. 2024 |
CUN
2 - 1
CSV
59%
23%
18%
|
61 | 66 | 5 | -1 |
| 10 Apr. 2024 |
CSV
1 - 0
GUA
30%
29%
41%
|
60 | 67 | 7 | +1 |
| 03 Apr. 2024 |
MAN
0 - 0
CSV
57%
26%
18%
|
59 | 70 | 11 | +1 |
Matches
9 de Octubre
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 May. 2024 |
OCT
0 - 0
INJ
40%
28%
32%
|
69 | 73 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 2024 |
OCT
1 - 0
CHA
56%
25%
20%
|
68 | 65 | 3 | +1 |
| 17 Apr. 2024 |
ESA
1 - 0
OCT
20%
26%
54%
|
69 | 49 | 20 | -1 |
| 10 Apr. 2024 |
OCT
1 - 0
CUN
49%
27%
25%
|
68 | 67 | 1 | +1 |
| 05 Apr. 2024 |
GUA
2 - 1
OCT
39%
27%
34%
|
68 | 66 | 2 | 0 |