Europa League Semi-finals
Global 2-2
Crvena Zvezda vs Hertha BSC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
60.5%
Win probability
1.87
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.5%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.3%
2-0
11.1%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.6%
1-0
11.8%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.8%
22.1%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.1%
17.4%
Win probability
0.89
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.8%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Crvena Zvezda
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar. 1979 |
WBA
1 - 1
CRV
70%
19%
11%
|
84 | 88 | 4 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 1979 |
CRV
1 - 0
WBA
41%
26%
33%
|
83 | 88 | 5 | +1 |
| 06 Dec. 1978 |
ARS
1 - 1
CRV
76%
15%
9%
|
83 | 88 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Nov. 1978 |
CRV
1 - 0
ARS
41%
24%
35%
|
83 | 88 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 1978 |
CRV
1 - 1
SPO
71%
17%
12%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Hertha BSC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Apr. 1979 |
HER
4 - 1
EIN
40%
26%
34%
|
82 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 1979 |
S04
1 - 1
HER
56%
23%
22%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 1979 |
HER
1 - 0
MSV
47%
24%
28%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 1979 |
DUK
1 - 2
HER
59%
21%
20%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | +1 |
| 17 Mar. 1979 |
BVB
3 - 0
HER
55%
22%
23%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | -1 |