Cup Winners Cup 1/16
Global 4-2
Crvena Zvezda vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.7%
Win probability
2.3
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.4%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.2%
4-0
5.2%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.4%
3-0
9%
4-1
4.2%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.1%
2-0
11.7%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.3%
17.6%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.6%
11.7%
Win probability
0.82
Expected goals
0-1
3.6%
1-2
3.4%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
8.3%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.7%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+23%
+8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Crvena Zvezda
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Oct. 1984 |
SLB
2 - 0
CRV
71%
18%
11%
|
84 | 87 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 Sep. 1984 |
CRV
3 - 2
SLB
45%
25%
29%
|
83 | 87 | 4 | +1 |
| 28 Sep. 1983 |
CRV
2 - 3
VER
79%
13%
7%
|
84 | 75 | 9 | -1 |
| 14 Sep. 1983 |
VER
1 - 0
CRV
37%
27%
36%
|
84 | 75 | 9 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 1982 |
FCB
2 - 1
CRV
71%
18%
11%
|
84 | 87 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep. 1985 |
BAS
4 - 1
FCA
47%
25%
29%
|
77 | 72 | 5 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 1985 |
FCA
5 - 1
FCL
68%
19%
14%
|
76 | 66 | 10 | +1 |
| 31 Aug. 1985 |
FCW
1 - 6
FCA
43%
26%
32%
|
76 | 68 | 8 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 1985 |
FCA
2 - 2
LAU
64%
20%
16%
|
76 | 71 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 1985 |
FCA
4 - 0
BAD
82%
12%
6%
|
76 | 51 | 25 | 0 |